Pack Predictions

WolfWire

The weekly postgame report: who won the week, what the crowd predicted against what actually happened, how the model did, and the week ahead.

Game 6, Wake Forest 38 State 14 #

Recap

Final: Wake Forest 38, NC State 14

I'm tired, boss.

Game winner

nobiasbucky, 40 points. Picked Wake Forest 37, NC State 17. Off by 4.

Three entrants finished on 40, so this one was decided on the first tiebreaker, lowest combined error. cardiacpack1887 and pack4ever both had Wake 34-13 for an error of 5, a single point behind. Next best was packatty at 35.

The crowd

171 picks in.

  • 65 of 171 had the winner right, 38 percent
  • The crowd picked State, 106 to 65
  • 3 picks landed inside five points, 14 inside ten
  • Miss range ran from 4 to 45, with the median at 27
  • No exact scores

The most popular pick in the field was NC State 35, Wake Forest 31, with eleven people on it. The final was 24 points the other way.

The Model

Predicted NC State 32, Wake Forest 25. Wrong winner, off by 31, 5 points for showing up.

Tied for 73rd, in the bottom tier alongside 98 others.

Its lowest-scoring game of the season, and it comes directly after its most accurate. Last week it called a coin flip to within three points. This week it had the wrong team by four scores.

The bets

Season: 6-15

  1. LOSS, State +3.5
  2. WIN, State over 13.5 first half
  3. LOSS, CJ Bailey 2+ passing TDs

Next up

Bye week, then Stanford on the road Friday Oct 23. Picks are open.

Archive

Every earlier week. Open one to read it, or link straight to it.

Game 5, State 31 Louisville 28

Game 5

Recap

Final: NC State 31, Louisville 28

CJ is so back and the ACC is wide open.

Game winner

packpa2015, 60 points. Picked it 31-28 on the nose. A perfect week.

11 people hit the exact score, all tied at 60 points with zero error, so this came down to the second tiebreaker: earliest submission. packpa2015 was in at 7:10 AM on Tuesday the 29th, the earliest of the eleven.

The other ten, in the order they submitted: bert314, ajingalls9, colebucket, whidbeywolf, landonc2408, kachattack, papa_lax, wolfintheweeds, stevewilliams and tuffy4748. All of them are into the Winners Circle.

The crowd

174 picks in.

  • 81 of 174 had the winner right, 47%
  • 11 exact scores, after zero all season
  • 32 picks landed inside five points, 87 inside ten
  • Miss range ran from 0 to 37, with the median at 11

The crowd picked Louisville, 91 to 81. State won anyway. And 31-28 was the single most popular prediction in the field, which is the first time this season the wisdom of the crowd has actually landed on a scoreline.

The Model

Most accurate game so far! Predicted NC State 28, Louisville 28. No winner credit, since a tie picks nobody. Off by 3, 30 points.

The bets

Season: 5-13

  1. LOSS Duke Scott over 90 yards, +222
  2. LOSS Duke Scott longest run over 18 yards
  3. WIN, State +3.5

Next up

Wake Forest at home, Saturday Oct 10. Picks are open.

Link to this report

Game 4, State 41 App State 31

Game 4

Recap

Final: NC State 41, App State 31

By the way, we won the tailgate.

Game winner

bsno10, 40 points. Picked NC State 44, App State 30. Off by 4, the best in the field.

Won outright at 40 against a next-best 35, so no tiebreaker. Three entrants tied for second at 35 with an error of 6: hmcdowe09, jcmasse22 and tjjones416.

The crowd

179 picks in.

  • 176 of 179 had the winner right, 98%
  • 1 pick landed inside five points, 20 more inside ten
  • Miss range ran from 4 to 52, with the median at 17
  • Still no exact scores on the season

Picking the Pack was easy. Picking the shootout was not. One entrant out of 179 landed inside five points of a game that produced 72.

The Model

Predicted NC State 34, App State 22. Right winner, off by 16, 25 points.

Would have finished 72nd of 177 if it were eligible, beating 64 entrants.

Right side, wrong game. The total is the problem it has always been, and 56 projected points against 72 actual is exactly the gap v2 is being built to close.

The bets

Season: 4-11, -8.5 units

  1. LOSS, Davion Gause anytime TD, +120, 2 units
  2. LOSS, Preston Douglas first touchdown, +1600, 1 unit
  3. WIN, State TD on the first drive, +126, 3 units
  4. WIN, State over 17.5 first half, -110, 2 units

Still open: State over 7.5 wins, +120, 5 units.

First winning week of the season, +2 units. The two that hit were both bets on how State starts games, which is the one thing it has done reliably.

Next up

Louisville at home Saturday Oct 3. Picks are open.

Link to this report

Game 3, Vanderbilt 35 State 31

Game 3

Recap

Final: Vanderbilt 35, NC State 31

Game winner

landonc2408, 40 points. Picked NC State 32, Vanderbilt 35. Off by one, the closest anyone has come all season.

Three entrants tied on 40, so this one went to combined error for the prize tiebreaker. wolf8895 was off by 3, packinga off by 4. All three qualify for Winner's Circle! As a refresher, that's a separate competition for the UNC game comprised of all weekly winners and ties.

The crowd

Some good picks this week!

  • 3 of you landed inside five points
  • 23 more were inside ten
  • 39% had Vanderbilt winning, so most of the board was on the wrong side
  • Still no exact scores, but landonc2408 missed by one

The Model

Predicted NC State 22, Vanderbilt 31. Right winner, off by 13, 30 points.

Its best week so far. Nine entrants beat it, about thirty matched it, and it finished ahead of 164. Tenth place if it were eligible.

The bets

Season: 2-9, -10.5 units

  1. LOSS, State +3.5, 3 units
  2. LOSS, Duke Scott anytime TD, +135, 2 units
  3. LOSS, Duke Scott 63+ rushing yards, 2 units
  4. LOSS, JoJo Trader 40+, +212, 2 units

Still open: State over 7.5 wins, +120, 5 units.

Next up

App State at home, Saturday Sep 26. Picks are open.

Link to this report

Game 2, State 73 Richmond 0

Game 2

Recap

Are we back? 11-1? All I know is we're not as bad as we showed against UVA and not as good as we showed against Richmond.

Final: NC State 73, Richmond 0

Game winner

cwebb1220, 25 points. Off by 20 combined, the only entrant in the 16-20 band, and the only person on the board who scored anything beyond the basics.

Won outright, no tiebreaker needed. Well done!

The crowd

The Pack were pissed about the UVA game and didn't want anyone scoring too much on Pack Predictions, apparently.

  • 99.5% had the winner right
  • 210 of you finished on exactly 15 points, so the board barely moved
  • No exact scores, and nobody landed within 15

The Model

Predicted NC State 39, Richmond 13. Off by 47 and only 15 points like the rest of the board. I did find it interesting that it was in the range of most predictions on the site. We'll be doing our first update to the model this week so we'll see what it spits out for Vandy.

The bets

Season: 2-5, -1.5 units

  1. LOSS, Victor Snow anytime TD, +260, 1 unit
  2. WIN, State touchdown on the first drive, -132, 2 units
  3. WIN, State -30.5, 3 units

Still open: State over 7.5 wins, +120, 5 units.

Next up

At Vanderbilt, Saturday Sep 19. Picks are open.

Link to this report

Game 1, State 8 Virginia 34

Game 1

Recap

I've got nothing else.

Final: Virginia 34, NC State 8

Weekly winner

cardiacpack1887, 35 points. Picked NC State 17, Virginia 35. Off by 10 combined, right winner, won outright with no tiebreaker needed.

Runners up at 30: saarab (off by 12), fireguyone4 (off by 13), hymansays and km55 (off by 15).

The crowd

333 picks in. Average call was NC State 29, Virginia 25.

  • 96 people had the winner right, 28.8%
  • Nobody landed the top band
  • 239 people, 71.8%, were off by 26 or more
  • No exact scores
  • Median combined error was 30, best was 10, worst was 56

The Model

Predicted Virginia 29, NC State 24. Off by 21, right winner, 20 points.

Would have finished 45th of 331 if it were eligible, beating 238 entrants.

The bets

Season: 0-4, -5.5 units

  1. OPEN, State over 7.5 wins
  2. LOSS, State moneyline, +180, 1 unit
  3. LOSS, Bailey and Gause anytime TD parlay, 0.5 units
  4. LOSS, Keenan Jackson over 30.5 receiving yards, 2 units
  5. LOSS, State over 23.5 team total, 2 units

Next up

Richmond at home, Friday Sep 11. Game 2 is already open, since each
game opens the morning after the last one is played. Picks lock at 6:50 PM
Eastern, ten minutes before the 7:00 PM kickoff.

Link to this report